It is much more complex than an LLM
There are thousands of human written rules to efficiently determine a fundamentally subjective ranking order, running on a uniquely large corpus.
Besides search is not a very good business: people are not inclined to pay for search, websites are averse to non-Google search crawlers, ads require an even larger over-investment in a top tier malware development, psychological manipulation, and statistics teams, while the real ad market is actually in a much more dire state than Google would like you to think.
>Sad to say, but this is no different from human written code. Human written code just takes even longer to realize the mistakes because the pace is slower.
I really don't think so, poor written human code IME is rarely overly complex, where as the AI code is almost always vastly over complex. Naturally complexity can be an issue because it leads to more surface area for failures and challenges to diagnose, but where I am REALLY seeing an issue is the complexity hiding an issue. Something that should normally fail or produce an error is covered up by something multiple layers deep in the code that returns an incorrect value instead of an error when something goes off the rails.
AI written code is a function of the human created constraints around it.
That is why I believe the most senior engineers on the team with the most scars and most experience need to shift into writing those constraints instead of writing code.
In writing those constraints, they can multiply their effect across a tireless fleet of agents that generally want to copy existing patterns and can be guided to use skills.
They mean the roughly 25 year tech sector run that's now culminating in the irrational exuberance of AI. There have been some hits already and the result of those is market cap consolidation of the largest companies. Not sure what the number is but the the 10 largest companies make up a huge percent of the entire S&P and most have extreme exposure to the same risks. The sector has been boosted by the NVIDIA circular financing as well but at some point there is a limit. Although they are angling for a pre-bailout with all the AI is going to kill humanity fear mongering. The only savior for the sector will be the government, the question is if the government steps in before or after an organic collapse.
Yeah, but the issue is we are getting constantly exposed to a barrage of really low quality obvious AI generated content. Except a lot of people seem to not know that it's AI and interact with like it's real. The people posting it are being reward by monetization platforms.
Low quality baiting content was a problem before but the barrier to entry has been significantly reduced and the.amount of content is growing quickly.
>Sure you can, why wouldn't you? Good models these days spit out architecture and code fairly indistinguishable from your average developer.
Good lord no, AI generated code isn't remotely close to something even the most insane human would generate. And if someone did you would seriously have to question what was going through their head. Everything from naming conventions to the flow of logic is twisted and often non-sensical. Plus the commenting and verbosity of code is ridiculous.Claude constantly makes up new terms to describe things that leave you wondering what it's talking about. Yesterday Claude started referring to some sort of logic as "finger-splint".
Well it's not like it didn't work out very well for Trump. Idk if it's 4D Chess but a huge part of the expense that lead to bankruptcy was licencing of the Trump brand. Can't pay all the other vendors because we first had to pay to license the name. OK, bankruptcy.
Shahed drone's are not serious weapons of war. Japan could easily produce millions of them if needed. The drones are good for antagonizing and terrorising a civilian population. A few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties.
In other words if Japan were in a position where they were willing to use drones to indiscriminately attack soft targets an F-35 would be about a trillion times more effective.
> The drones are good for antagonizing and terrorising [sic] a civilian population. A few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties.
Absolutely incorrect.
- The purpose of these drones is to establish deterrence.
- US is not capable of reaching every inch of Iranian airspace with F-35s unless it is willing to accept a significant casualty rate among pilots.
- Even if they could, the US has not been able to decimate Iran's drone stockpile even in the areas it can ~safely reach.
The war in Ukraine demonstrated how cheap drones could overwhelm more expensive defense systems and make favorable trades. It has now also started to show that, as defense against cheap drones has gotten better, more expensive jet drones are being used that can bypass the now cheaper and slower defense systems that is designed to target cheap drones. As such we can expect to see more expensive and faster defense systems. If they then want to make even faster and bigger drones they might make it so big that put a person in it to fly it, thus making it easier to reuse and better to adapt to different defense systems.
And so the cycle is completed. The only real question seems to be if the pilot in the fighter jet will remain a benefit when the drone is increased to that scale.
> The only real question seems to be if the pilot in the fighter jet will remain a benefit when the drone is increased to that scale.
With the modern tech level, silicon-based systems can react faster, make fewer mistakes and feel less fatigue. So it all circles back to the relative wetware price.
>- US is not capable of reaching every inch of Iranian airspace with F-35s unless it is willing to accept a significant casualty rate among pilots.
The casualty rate would not be high at all, though all casualties are significant. There would be some, but again this is why I said in a serious war, pilot casualties would be expected. It also would not be as if they need to hit the whole country at once. There would be fronts and lines and structured approach.
Right now the US is working around internal issues with the IRGC. The US doesn't even want to destroy all of Iran's stockpile or production facilities. They only want to destroy those which are in the possession of the IRGC factions actively engaging in combat. Even more pressing than destroying the drones is eliminating the particular IRGC faction heads that are responsible for attack. The US isn't conducting any sort of sweeping campaign at all, every attack has been precisely targeted to hit certain commanders. Even the ones making headlines for civilian casualties. It's just more palatable to let everyone assume you made a mistake than to come out and say, "We determined there would be less collateral damage over an extended horizon if we conduct this strike now."
Quite possibly. But shaheds aren't the answer either. After Fukushima, the plutonium 240 fuel for the breeders they don't want to run anymore has been piling up. Not as good as 239, but that is what they should be looking at.
Because of stealth jets, the US is capable of destroying every single power plant in the country, with all the horrible human cost you would expect. Exactly like Putin has been trying to do in Ukraine. Except, they could actually do it.
Trump and Hegseth may be bumbling idiots but so far they have been showing restraint. The jets seem to be pretty effective at making big holes in the ground, I wouldn't call their demise just yet.
It would be sufficient to destroy just the Asaluyeh gas infrastructure near the South Pars field. It's easily approached over the open sea where Iran has negligible air defences, and it is rather... flammable. It provides something like 75% of Iran's domestic gas supply and in turn fuels most of their power stations.
Their economy would implode within days.
Of course, this would be a horrific crime against humanity, comparable in impact on civilians to dropping a nuke on a capital city.
Speaking of which: my partner knows next to nothing about warfare and while watching the news I had to explain that the US Navy submarine mentioned by the presenter isn't just for taking out enemy ships, it is a nuclear-armed "world ending" weapon that could simply... erase... a country. Or two. Probably three. In under an hour.
The US and Russia can destroy every power plant in their respective opposing countries with I(C/R)BMs, but this would involve breaking taboos of which even their respective leaders are fearful.
The fighter jet is not capable of destroying every power plant in Iran without risking pilot casualties, an endeavor for which the US lacks political capital. The drone has no such issue. A rational nation would have shifted primary investment into medium-range drones many yesterdays ago.
> Russia can destroy every power plant in their respective opposing countries with I(C/R)BMs
I don't think this is true. Sure if you count nuclear weapons, but that's not on the table.
Russia has already used IRBMs. Even Putin tacitly admitted they failed to hit their targets. It's entirely likely that Russian ICBMs simply do not have the accuracy required to strike something as small as a power plant with a conventional payload.
Even China is building stealth jets and aircraft carriers. The people making these decisions know more about their capabilities than you or me.
Shipping through Hormuz is already up to about half prewar levels. I don't think Iran's strategy is working very well for them.
The scoreboard says otherwise. US jets can't even reach the northeastern half of the country because the refueling tankers can't get close enough to give them the range.
Additionally, Iran had deterrence that you're not giving them credit for. If they destroyed Saudi and UAE's water desalination, it would be a mass casualty event.
Ok, yeah, B2s flying from Missouri could do it, at great expense, with multiple refuelings. We're talking about putting doomsday cross-planet planes on missions to drop a couple 1000 lb bombs.
> few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties
the current admin does not care about civilians casualties. remember the tomahawk on school girls? so what are they waiting for if it was that easy?
Realistically this happened due to high confidence with regard to the presence of a high value target. It's awful, but there was assuredly a calculus and the goal is less collateral damage over the long term. There wasn't just an oops missile or multi-year old intelligence.
OTOH attack the drone capacity would require undetermined strikes on logistical networks and downstream suppliers. It wouldn't be hard, but there would be far more civilian casualties and many of the strikes would be non-beneficial.
Yeah, it's laughable to think that somewhere in the DoD a map labeled like "Iran: Huge Undefended Drone Warehouses" has just been sitting around unused because Hegseth/Trump keep vetoing it on account of potential civilian casualties.
Sure, we could easily wrap this whole thing up a couple days but the admin is choosing to remain stuck in a quagmire that's dooming GOP in the midterms. Based on a moral red line, of all things. Makes perfect sense.
They obviously could start methodically destroying civilian infrastructure to cause a huge humanitarian crisis which might force the Iranian government to collapse. They have clearly chosen not to commit to that approach so far.
These kinds of arguments are obviously vacuous: The US could also "win" any war with a non-nuclear opponent by nuking every major city. But the fact that they don't is not something worth calling restraint.
It would be, except when the primary value proposition is capturing the upside of that volatility. In the case of BTC a sustained lack of volatility is going to create significant downward pricing pressure. At some point that will trigger a run and as stakeholders have condensed the rut will get deeper and deeper as the upside of the volatility swings continually lower.
If anyone is looking for something similar it's worth looking into A somewhat less complex solution that preserves all functionality. Use the IR receiver plus a broadlink IR Hub. You can meet all the goals here, run it all locally the only downside is no 2 way communication. So if you do change the thermostat via the wall it won't be reflected in your app.
The LLM could one shot a brilliant solution, or it could lead you down a days long path to nowhere. It could give you accurate useful information or it could completely make up something that isn't at all correct. The fact that each usage is a dice roll where you have a desired outcome that will be fulfilled at a variable level makes it very similar to gambling. And in fact the part that makes it addictive is the near hits where the LLM comes very close to giving you what you want, but not quite there. That keeps you coming back.
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