No graphics output. And so loud you wouldn’t be able to hear your game either. Also they use about 1kw of power, so you’d only want to run it in the winter.
what Dario wants is to retain any influence whatsover on how the research progresses before the inevitable nationalization of the frontier. he gets to keep the N-2 tech and maybe influence the N-1 tech, but the only influence on the frontier he has is today; whatever he imprints in the pipeline the government takes over.
IOW I don't think he thinks in the same categories as most folks here.
> ...the research progresses before the inevitable nationalization of the frontier.
Hacker News has been telling me America beats China at "innovation" because of the "freedoms" - especially frew enterprise. I wonder how a nationalized frontier lab would perform.... Andhow the non-citizen researchers would feel about working for the US government that doesn't trust them to use frontier models.
Best-possible-model (N) - Two Generations (2), same with N-1, N is the SOTA in this example. I'm not sure that actually clarifies what the comment is trying to say other than they think the models will be nationalized (can't even imagine what that would look like).
But he already got it, no? Claude Fable can only be made available to US citizens, which implies that every user who wants to use Claude Fable must provide proof of citizenship in some way, basically KYC.
Regulatory capture is the OpenAI and Anthropic end goal, for certain.
But I also think they exist in a sort of un-designed corporate narcissism, which is a common trait in bubble economies — I am not judging them particularly severely.
Netscape under Clark and Andreessen and Sun under McNealy both fell into corporate narcissism: the belief that only they really mattered, that they were chosen, and that the world needed to rearrange itself to just let them shine. They arguably let themselves get played by Oracle (a corporate psychopath) and others as a result.
OpenAI's position is profoundly corporate-narcissistic: all we need is all the money in the economy and not to have to do anything upsetting like think about turning a profit for the next four years. Like rich kids. It would be nice if you believed we were so important that we should get an enormous stipend for just being us.
Anthropic's position is: we think we're so unique and ominous that government needs to make us both essential and terrifying. We have to exist otherwise worse people will.
HN is the builder side of the conversation, and in my experience, few safety people congregate here.
The safety side of tech is a PTSD inducing shit show. Governments are more than happy to champion age verification laws, because parents, around the world, are clamoring for anything to pump the breaks on the social media experiment.
Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat.
As someone on the "safety side of tech", social media is being exploited to increase surveillance and government control precisely because its actual social influence is heavily on the wane, and capital is happy to sacrifice what's left to increase the profits of the expanding public/private tech surveillance industry (with "protect the children" controls on social media like age verification being the usual backdoor route it always is).
Society may be growing tired of Tech, but governments aren't, and in fact they're heavily expanding their back channel reliance on not-traditionally-military Tech as an extension of their Defense spending.
Cyber security has the maturity that trust and safety hopes to achieve at some point.
Social media was being exploited from inception. Palantir had sales documents for sock puppet management software back in the PHP era.
I don’t disagree that Government is interested in tech, but I will push back on the dismissal of child safety that is inherent in your comment, intended or not.
For all that some people in the firm may have tried to do the right thing, Social media firms have created bad outcomes for children, and executives were briefed on the harms they were going to cause.
This is the dismissal that concerns me, because it ends up miscalculating the level of anger and unhappiness amongst the voting populace, and therefore the political will to pass regulation to reign tech in.
The political will is already captured and redirected.
There are numerous bills to limit AI access for consumers, to combat deepfakes hurting children. There are no bills introduced or passed to prevent AI being used to target dronestrikes that kill children abroad, or surveil children domestically.
What the public wants doesn't actually matter right now, only what the government will allow to let pass, which in this case is additional internet surveillance.
Under a future, better government this may change, but (sadly) nothing is going to sink tech's dominance right now.
The anger and unhappiness against tech is good, and hopefully someday they'll burn down all the data centers and I'll never have to hear the words Cloud Computing again, but (to paraphrase a famous Eve Online interaction) it's not going to be today, and it's not going to be us.
That is a classic, but the one I was referencing was actually a Rooks and Kings video about them pipe bombing, where they were on the enemy fleet comms and one of them is like, "someday someone's going to get the drop on them for once", and another guy is like, "but it's not gonna be today, and it's not gonna be you!"
> Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat.
I don't think anyone in tech is really truly engaging with how quickly the shine has come off the tech industry. Except maybe Apple, who even so still have some work to do.
Technology and science is the intersection that is supposed to make our lives better, easier, more prosperous. The last decade or two what marvelous technology has came from silicon valley that hasn't served primarily the billionaire class and made life worse for the common people.
The yoke of silicon valley is feeling heavy. People might just throw it off.
> Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat.
s/Tech/Tech Companies
Tech did it to themselves. People like and want technology. What they don't like and don't want more of is enshittified, user hostile technology. The answer is out there, but our collective school systems failed to teach computing irt free software/open source and instead schools themselves all bought in on enshittified, proprietary tech, or even just dumped trying to teach computing at all outside of "how to login to google classroom and google docs"
I grew up lucky, in that my dad was a dev, my first PC as a kid ran red hat, my high school had an intro to programming class (in BAISC lol). It shaped how I approached computing growing up, and my values. It makes me look at the things we have now and think "No, you're just repackaging community free software and selling it back to me, I'll pass on that."
That experience isn't available to anyone born after that specific era, instead their tech experience is shaped by walled gardens, vendor lock-in, and straight up hostile and manipulative software, so its no wonder they are tired of it. They don't even know a different world (of software) exists.
Spot on. There's a certain level of drinking the kool-aid or getting high on their own supply. Anthropic is a lot worse than OpenAI but OpenAI had to go through rounds of shedding.
A\ and OpenAI each have their own unique kind of nonsense. I think OpenAI has just been less successful with persuading the rest of the world that they should have all the money in the world.
Anthropic has been surprisingly successful at convincing them that they should control frontier models because they're so dangerous that... only Anthropic can be trusted with them.
(If they're really so dangerous, the right way to deal with them is through a democratic process and taking them out of the hands of a for-profit private entity.)
A democratic process, of sorts, elected the current government of the United States. The president even won the popular vote this round. There is no guarantee that AI guidance by democratic process will be an effective counter to corporate autocracy; and more realistically, AI guidance by an autocratic executive branch is the more likely alternative before 2029.
To be maximally fair to them, I think it is difficult to be one of the key businesses in a market bubble and not fall victim to this kind of thinking, especially when the continued inflation of the bubble depends on you — lots of people lose their shirts if you don't push hard to be "special".
But as you say, there is a measure of getting high on one's own supply now.
And there's the curious solipsistic energy of Sam Altman whimsically musing in public that it turns out his product is too expensive for people and they complain when you make the price realistic (when it possibly needs to be more expensive for OpenAI to survive).
They seem to believe that the ordinary rules either will not or somehow must not apply to them; it's increasingly bizarre to watch.
Maybe the people around pets.com were this bizarre; we didn't have so much livestreamed interview content to show us.
Aum Shin Rikyo didn't need an LLM to synthesize Sarin, and neither do you.
But when the police raid the hideout of the next Aum Shin Rikyo successor group and find evidence that they got the recipe from an LLM rather than traditional chemistry books, the resulting kneejerk legislative overreaction will cost us all some freedom.
you can already get that information by reading books in the library.
The biggest barrier is not information, it's the ability to secure enough of the materials and equipment.
For example, information for how to make a nuclear weapon is already there in the library. However, mining enough yellow cake and then purifying it is an industrial scale operation, out of reach unless you are a nation state, and have good mountain tunnels, etc. To a lesser extent, this is also true for producing chemical weapons. The theory is there, but actual production extremely out of reach. No LLM can help you there. (You can verify by reading up on Aum Shinrikyo to get an idea of the staggering scale required)
Sure, information on all sorts of things is in “the library”. But (a) most people in the world don’t have access to a decent library (if you’re on HN you’re statistically much more likely to), (b) most people have no idea how to use one (same), and most importantly (c) AI will distill the knowledge from ten books you might need to read into step by step simple instructions if you ask.
Highly unlikely. Just the energy cost of running centrifuges, let alone manufacturing them is impossible to hide. It's staggering when you consider it.
To put some more perspective, an LLM could show you how to make a Boeing 747 in detail, but the actual chance of someone making one with no tools and logistics would be 0.
There are numerous large companies with the resources and technical know how to match either Pakistan or India's efforts here, companies already experienced in yellowcake extraction and complex production processing equipment manufacture.
> To put some more perspective, an LLM could show you how to make a Boeing 747 in detail, but the actual chance of someone making one with no tools and logistics would be 0.
Pakistan, India, and many companies have resources, tools, logistics experience .. I have no idea how this sentence is meant to meaningfully refute those facts.
> LLMs haven't changed the economic realities.
I don't recall mentioning LLM's and I remind all that the bulk of nuclear weapons development happened before LLM's were a thing.
FWiW there are better actual arguments why it is unlikely (but not impossible) for a non state actor to put together a nuclear weapon .. the comment above is not one.
No, Dario became too tiresome and annoying that someone had to do something. Personally I hope they ban Opus too. It will only provide more support for open models development.
Compare Dario horror posts with this from GLM release:
“ Intelligence should be open, accessible, and ready to build with, empowering every developer, everywhere.”
I'm hardly a fanboy of Anthropic or any of the AI companies, but Ant aren't objectively in a different league of tech bro "tiresome and annoying" than OAI, Google, FB, MSFT, etc. Yet they are being targeted just because of the TOU / EULA they set on usage of their product restricting use for lethal combat planning and mass surveillance.
Set aside whether you agree with that TOU / EULA. We can all decide whether the price and terms any product is available for are acceptable to us. When you create a product, you get to decide the price and terms you want to offer it under. The right to be secure in your person and property is part of the constitution. And Anthropic's models are their property. But the US Government is now extorting a private corporation to force them to let the DoW use the product for lethal combat planning and mass surveillance - against their wishes. That's wrong.
In this case, I don't fully agree with the policies of the company or care for some of the management, but that doesn't change that this is bullshit and unconstitutional.
You can’t ignore their continuous PR on banning open models and regulating everything AI. With Fable we also see how they want it to work: store the data indefinitely (30 days or more) and put restrictions on everything “dangerous” (I.e AI, IT security, biology physics ). I am pretty sure they would want to give specific access on different companies/entities and on differential pricing(I.e use regulatory to inflate their prices)
We’ve also seen how bad that works in practice(I.e making the AI useless for a lot of stuff including programming and Sysadmin ).
It would be okay if they just do their own thing but this Dario guy wants to enforce that enshitification of the whole industry. And that’s not OK because they have money now, power and influence.
I hope the gov will put breaks on Anthropic and regulate them just the way they wanted. The next best thing would be to ask them put restrictions on Opus as they did on Fable
I don’t see it as good PR for Anthropic at all. They did a lot of PR in that direction but now it backfired.
People/gov now think twice about relying on US ai products. I don’t think the investors are very happy with the place this landed either.
I think the right move for Europe and other countries would be to effectively ban US tech and follow the Chinese response to Nvidia (delivered personally to Trump: we want to build our own AI chips).
We are back to cold war computing days, the message has long arrived on this side of the Atlantic, even if most companies and governments aren't able to get rid of old habits.
> People/gov now think twice about relying on US ai products.
Oh this has already been clear to anyone in the EU, for example. The current reliance on US tech and even widespread stuff like MS is pretty deeply rooted, however and it might take a while to do anything about it - so for many it’s a matter of convenience for now.
That said, as long as what you need sits behind an OpenAI or Anthropic API and you don’t have deeper proprietary integrations, there is no moat. I can even run Claude Code with DeepSeek if I so choose (though OpenCode is neat too).
Best EU has at the moment seems to be Mistral though, which is… sorta passable, but not cutting edge. Oh well.
> I think the right move for Europe and other countries would be to effectively ban US tech and follow the Chinese response to Nvidia (delivered personally to Trump: we want to build our own AI chips).
Not sure about outright ban, but homegrown govt. systems should have both the devs and the infra in EU.
Would also be really cool if we could make even regular CPUs and GPUs some day but I don’t think that’s super likely, though. Kinda amazing that China can do that! Even consumer stuff like the Chinese Lisuan GPUs (and Moore Threads I think), hell, even the Russian Elbrus CPUs.
Don't they lose money on every token they sell, though? It may be a blessing in disguise. They can now use all of their resources towards superintelligence, and can't be considered selfish/evil for not sharing their fruits. The government made me now becomes an excuse.
> I think the right move for Europe and other countries would be to effectively ban US tech and follow the Chinese response to Nvidia (delivered personally to Trump: we want to build our own AI chips).
How would the EU replace US tech? There simply are no equivalent providers of such technology in the EU, regardless of pipe dreams in that respect EU representatives regularly conjure up (privacy industry, "European Google", "European Facebook", you name it ..,).
Maybe, however, such a move would actually be consistent with dominant EU policy. The EU seems hellbent on becoming poor and economically irrelevant, after all.
The primary European failure here has been to allow the hollowing out of the EU tech space. There have been plenty of web tech players in the EU; the US policy over the last 30 years has been to absorb them into US companies or buy them off using US capital, and the EU strategy has been to very much encourage that.
But it is complete fantasy to use the current landscape as evidence of capability. It would be equally shortsighted to say "How would the US replace Chinese manufacturing? There simply are no equivalent supply chains in the US, regardless of pipe dreams that pedophile sycophants regularly conjure up. The US seems hellbent on becoming poor and economically irrelevant".
It never ceases to amaze me how people scramble to defend the EU's failed policies over the last three decades. The EU managed to regulate itself out of all relevant markets and it only has itself to blame.
The EU lost its manufacturing capacity to countries with cheaper labour, just like the US. The US has only succeeded in IT, everywhere else it struggles against Asia.
The ‘American dream’ attracted a lot of talent (look at how many tech leaders were immigrants), and once the network effects (both IT and social) kicked in it was hard to stop. This is a story that has unfolded many times throughout history. Talent moves to where talent is. And it will move if conditions change.
You’re missing their point, they’re not defending EU policy and in fact agree that current capability is poor. They’re saying that it can change and that the US is also self sabotaging in other ways.
Therein lies the rub for the EU. They think they can just regulate such alternatives into existence, yet have time and time again failed to provide such alternatives.
Linux is no EU project, but very much global. It just happens that its originator (who, quite tellingly, has been living and working in the US since the mid-90s) is Finnish.
It's really not that bad of an idea. At least the adblocking part is justifiable considering considering how many times I see people (older/less tech savvy) getting caught with scareware from ads.
I suppose some people just want to see the world burn.
I'm by no means a supporter of copyright and copyright laws, but unilaterally terminating such agreements is a recipe for disaster. How do you think the US would react to such a move?
The us got those agreements in the first place in exchange for 0% tarrifs for international trade. Now that the US has dropped free trade, there's very little incentive for other countries to hold to their side of the deal. If europe wanted to, they could really go to 25 year on US copyright with a plan to go to 0 if there was retaliation
It is never too late for the Great Wall of Europe.
Like in each ones lives, sometimes hard decisions are only possible because they are forced upon us without alternatives.
Recent example, Ukraine would never gotten advanced drone technology, if it wasn't for the price they are being forced to pay to keep their country.
If unfortunately we're faced with similar hard decisions on who to depend on, they will have to be done, regardless of their cost to the local industry.
While advancements in drone technology in Ukraine certainly have been accelerated by the war, the country was by no means unprepared. They have been preparing for a large-scale war ever since the Russian occupation of Crimea (and the dismal international reaction to that).
The EU isn't even capable of ramping up its own defence capabilities when being faced with the very real threat of a Russian incursion in the next few years, which has me wonder what would be required for them to finally wake up.
> The EU isn't even capable of ramping up its own defence capabilities when being faced with the very real threat of a Russian incursion in the next few years, which has me wonder what would be required for them to finally wake up.
It is because EU is not a single state, and member states have very different perspectives not only on Russia threat, but also on "digital sovereignty".
Everyone saying "EU should do something" is just blind towards political reality.
Yet they keep yapping on about the EU being about tighter integration between its member states. If not in the area of defence, where else? So far, this has been an abject failure (recently, see: FCAS).
A failure of each country protecting their own industry, unfortunately stuff that happens since Roman Empire downfall, yet eventually things came together, and falled apart multiple times.
Sure, it "backfired" but it would've happened anyway. Trump mad Trump get revenge. Trump smash. That's how he operates - and even though Anthropic were being dicks about the marketing, they got Trump mad. That's why this is happening, not due to the marketing - it would've happened anyway.
If anything the marketing is WHY it got so popular during these 3 days.
I think this is the beginning of the end of US tech dominance. That being said I personally was not impressed with Fable at all. Apart from burning tokens like there was no tomorrow it behaved like Opus 4.8 and produced more or less the same output. In practice I think it was hard to use due the safety restrictions. With the shadow slop injector it was basically DOA but they changed that policy so at least it still had a chance.
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